Is Intel (INTC) stuffing the channel with chips? That’s the contention of analyst Douglas Freedman with American Technology Research in a note put out this morning. “Our checks suggest that Intel may be aggressively filling the channel and OEM inventory to mute the present demand cycle.” His thesis is that if Intel sticks distributors and PC makers with lots of its processors, both parties will be “incentivized” to sell more Intel parts to get rid of them. While Freedman is not raising his estimates, he thinks the result of channel stuffing is that Intel’s December and March quarters may not be as bad as he’s been thinking till now, while some sales and profit could be taken out of next fiscal year. Specifically, Freedman’s estimate for this fiscal year ending December could go from 61 cents per share in earnings to “high 70s” while 2010 could fall from 95 cents to “high 80s.” At the same time, Freedman sees Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) giving price discounts of around 5% to Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The result? “We believe HPQ could use this pricing to gain share and/or improve margins in the cycle, while providing a level of revenue support for AMD. The close HPQ-AMD partnership (previously seen with HP’s timely embrace of AMD’s Athlon in 2006) appears strong entering the downturn.”

Intel shares today are up 39 cents, or 2.6%, at $15.30. AMD shares are up 5 cents, or 1.9%, at $2.72.